This is very difficult to investigate. At the current state, I can present only some arguments.
The sexual desire is usually very strong, if not the strongest feeling. For a true pedophile, to live without violation of law means not to have any satisfactory sex in the whole lifetime. This variant is very harmful for them. This leads to low compliance.
On the other hand, there are pseudo-pedophiles - people with "normal" sexual orientation who are interested in sex with children for other reasons. For this group, the compliance seems to be much higher.
Another reason is the low rate of persecution. This rate is low enough to be comparable with rates for accidents in other domains of life (skiing, alpinism, car driving), there they are usually not a reason not to do the related things, independent of the severity of the typical accident. That's why I don't think that the penalties will have a great influence on compliance.
Thus, it seems more probable that the pedophile uses very dangerous evasive behaviour instead of compliance.
Especially we have in mind here "child porn".
Higher penalties are often considered as a possibility to increase compliance. But these penalties are already so high that only people who consider the possibility to be detected as not relevant will have sex with children. For these people, higher penalties are not relevant for their decision.
To "detect" a "crime" without a "victim" interested in persecution is not easy.